Investment Commentary

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Q2 2023 Investment Commentary

Fears of an imminent recession are getting kind of old at this writing; any investors who retreated some or all their portfolios to the sidelines in anticipation that the economy was about to tank are now ruing their luck, as the markets delivered another quarter of solid returns. It’s another version of the lesson: listen to the pundits predicting disaster at your (financial) peril. What if somebody could tell you…

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2022 Investment Commentary

Many investors are no doubt glad to see 2022 in the rear view mirror, and if they do look back, the picture is not pretty.  Stocks were buffeted by the Federal Reserve Board’s aggressive rate hikes (the fastest since the 1980s stagflation era) and the reverse of the QE policies which, for a decade or more, flooded the markets with liquidity.  It didn’t help that there were persistent fears of…

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October 2022 Investment Commentary

The Markets (as of market close October 31, 2022) October saw stocks close higher, the first monthly gain since July. Investors were encouraged by hopes that the Federal Reserve will pull back from its aggressive interest-rate hike policy. In addition, solid third-quarter earnings could be a sign that the economy can withstand the battle to lower inflation. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted notable gains, led by the…

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Q3 2022 Investment Commentary

Remember that nice little rally from mid-June until somewhere around mid-August, when the market returns seemed to be moving us out of bear market territory? We don’t either; that little upturn seems like a long time ago. The past month and a half re-established the down market trend that has generally been going on since the start of the year, as the markets gave back everything they had gained since…

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August 2022 Investment Commentary

The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2022) Through the first half of August, the stock market continued to ride July’s rally. Including the first two weeks of August, stocks had posted four consecutive weekly gains — the longest weekly rally of 2022. The latest inflation data showed prices had fallen in July, bolstering investor confidence that the Fed may begin to reel in its aggressive interest-rate hike policy.…

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July 2022 Investment Commentary

The Markets (as of market close July 29, 2022) July saw the stock market ebb and flow throughout the month. Sometimes the market reacted in response to news of some sort. Other times, stocks moved in anticipation of something that may happen. For instance, the latest quarterly corporate earnings reports generally have been better than expected, with about 75% of the S&P 500 companies beating analysts’ estimates. However, investors responded…

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Q2 2022 Investment Commentary

The bad news in the investment markets continues. U.S. stocks entered true bear market territory in the middle of the second quarter, and finished with the worst first six months’ returns since 1970. Meanwhile, bond rates rose, causing bond investors to suffer paper losses as well. Losses were spread across the full investment spectrum. The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index—the broadest measure of U.S. stocks—lost 16.77% in the second quarter,…

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