Investment Commentary
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Q2 2024 Investment Commentary
The U.S. and (to a lesser extent) global equity markets continue to generate positive returns for investors, the bond market is settling down and the long-predicted recession keeps being moved back by the market pundits. It’s almost easy to forget that bear markets ever happen, given the returns of last year and this year’s first two quarters. The gains have slowed down from the red-hot first quarter, but they are…
Q1 2024 Investment Commentary
We should probably get this out of the way at the beginning: nobody should expect that 10% quarterly gains in the stock market will continue forever, or even for the rest of the year, unless you believe that stocks will become 40% more valuable into the foreseeable future. But we can celebrate a generous quarter of returns, nonetheless. Double-digit and near-double-digit gains were everywhere to be found in this unusual…
2023 Investment Commentary
Last year, stocks were buffeted by the Federal Reserve Board’s aggressive rate hikes (the fastest since the 1980s stagflation era) and the reverse of the QE policies which, for a decade or more, flooded the markets with liquidity. There were persistent fears of a recession and market economists were comparing this perfect storm of headwinds to the declines triggered by the 2008 financial crisis. In one poll taken at this…
Q3 2023 Investment Commentary
The Congressional leadership returned to some semblance of sanity and finally passed a bill to keep the U.S. government funded for another few weeks, and the markets breathed a sigh of relief. But the third quarter was filled with drama, moderate losses, and a lot of day-to-day volatility. We are experiencing the part of the investment roller-coaster that tests the stomachs of investors and tempts people to jump off at…
Q2 2023 Investment Commentary
Fears of an imminent recession are getting kind of old at this writing; any investors who retreated some or all their portfolios to the sidelines in anticipation that the economy was about to tank are now ruing their luck, as the markets delivered another quarter of solid returns. It’s another version of the lesson: listen to the pundits predicting disaster at your (financial) peril. What if somebody could tell you…
2022 Investment Commentary
Many investors are no doubt glad to see 2022 in the rear view mirror, and if they do look back, the picture is not pretty. Stocks were buffeted by the Federal Reserve Board’s aggressive rate hikes (the fastest since the 1980s stagflation era) and the reverse of the QE policies which, for a decade or more, flooded the markets with liquidity. It didn’t help that there were persistent fears of…
October 2022 Investment Commentary
The Markets (as of market close October 31, 2022) October saw stocks close higher, the first monthly gain since July. Investors were encouraged by hopes that the Federal Reserve will pull back from its aggressive interest-rate hike policy. In addition, solid third-quarter earnings could be a sign that the economy can withstand the battle to lower inflation. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted notable gains, led by the…
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